 | Home > INEOS Grenadier > Who is going to buy it? |
 
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| ResGuy68 Member Since: 15 May 2021 Location: Austin Posts: 26  
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Yep. We have a bounty of riches in the US with respect to our body-on-frame vehicles. It's sad that the Wrangler and Bronco offerings are so limited overseas.
I'm a bit fed-up with independent front suspension after breaking a couple CVs on my 4runner out in Utah las month... So the SFA of the grenadier definitely has some appeal. And damn is that Wrangler loud; my wife will barely drive it. The body-on-frame "off-road capable" SUV segment is growing like crazy in the US and is approaching 500 thousand units per year among the Wrangler, 4runner and Bronco alone. This is despite limited "innovation" among the 4runner and Wrangler platforms over the past 3 decades and a Bronco platform which is new and untested. I think there's definitely room in the segment for a 4th seller. If you're looking for SFA, it would be nice to have an alternative to Jeep. If you're looking for a hardtop, it would be nice to have an alternative to the 4runner. And, if you're looking for both, it would be nice to have an option. |
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17th May 2021 5:53pm |
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| Grenadier Member Since: 23 Jul 2014 Location: The foot of Mont Blanc... Posts: 5858  
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ResGuy, those sale numbers you mention are really interesting. Given how many New Defender sales seem to be going to Disco and RRS owners, rather than all-new owners or classic Defender owners, it does make you wonder at JLR's decision to create this all new (look and tech) Defender, rather than a quality Grenadier style evolution of the pre-2016 model.
There's such a trend for all things retro, for the great outdoors, for extreme this and that, that I think a LR badged 'Grenadier' would have sold really well: Loads of us 'classic' owners, a return to the body on frame US market, the Aussie and SA markets that might have been super wary about the old Defender's reliability and comfort, and all new buyers who wouldn't sacrifice those same comforts and reliability to buy an old model in lieu of a Disco or other large off roader. And that doesn't even begin to include all the possible military, NGO or service variants they could get contracts for; what alternative was there. Looking at your body on frame sales stats and the wide market a Grenadier-style evolution could have appealed to, sales could have been exceptional. And they could still have made the current model and just called it Disco 6. The question leading on from my thoughts is whether Ineos can gain any traction in the markets ive mentioned above without having the green oval on front. Personally I think it will gain most traction, (if it proves to be anything close to what the development videos are showing it will be), with the type of LR enthusiast found on this forum as we will see and understand the development and technologies that have been put into the creation of the Grenadier and it will hold great appeal as it so closely resembles what many of us wanted our current vehicles to become: the same, just better. Monsieur Le Grenadier I've not been everywhere, but it's on my list..... 2011 Puma 110DC - Corris Grey |
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18th May 2021 6:47am |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952 
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Jim, I couldn't agree more. I was arguing back in 2015 for JLR to simply update the Defender, like Jeep did with the Wrangler. They just had to put right about five wrongs. The style was great, it just needed tweaking and brought into the 21st century. Personally, and you may disagree, but I thought they were almost bang on with the DC100. The new one is not for me! A relative of mine (who loves it) summed it up for me. He said the interior is fantastic. Exactly. That's not what a Defender should be about. Now left. |
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18th May 2021 7:43am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018 
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Looking at Zed's post on top 25 SUVs in the US (for Q1 2020 sales): https://www.defender2.net/forum/posting.ph...p;p=903631 It's looks like the US market is happier to look beyond badge to more fundamental issues. Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Maxda, Hyundai, Kia are all selling single models with a volume that are greater than the entire annual production allocation for the Grenadier. Now those brands have built a following over many years. Even VW appear to have been forgiven for dieselgate. Who knows what Ineos's brand awareness is there now? Americas Cup, and F1 must help and the plan to take the model there for testing this year must give rise to a number of PR opportunities? Perhaps NOT having the green oval badge on the front is a positive in the US market right now? |
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18th May 2021 8:28am |
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| Ads90 Member Since: 16 Jun 2008 Location: Cots-on-the-Wolds Posts: 812 
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Interesting point. However, LR's reputation for bad reliability has been hard-won, Ineos will have to start with no reputation at all. The two will probably balance out initially. |
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18th May 2021 8:52am |
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| ResGuy68 Member Since: 15 May 2021 Location: Austin Posts: 26
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[quote="Supacat"]
Thanks for sharing. It's shocking how large the US market is. We certainly love our crossovers and SUV/UVs. And, I agree, consumers have shown willingness to purchase new vehicle designs and/or offerings from "secondary" automakers. I believe that the growth in demand for trucks, SUV/UVs and crossovers has led to a few years of outright declines in average fleet mileage in the US. I find this to be a pretty shocking indicator of consumer preferences. It certainly goes against the consensus view that IC engines and big vehicles are on their way out. I imagine that INEOS is designing their vehicle with a strong eye towards the US market (IMO it is likely their "primary" market). It has all the demand factor conditions you'd like (large market, discerning consumer base, underserved body-on-frame segment). The US market is also "tidy" in the sense that regulatory/environmental pressures are merely a small "nuisance" vs the more punitive measures considered in the EU. In the US, automakers are updating or releasing new UV/SUV/truck platforms under the assumption that they can simply pay a couple thousand USD to settle any mileage deficiency. This price is "embedded" in the prices consumers pay, and the consumers seem to have little care. Heck, Ford just released a Bronco platform with EPA MPG of 17 for the two most popular trims. Ford wouldn't have done this if they were concerned about regulatory changes/barriers. I'm guessing that they're planning on at least 5-10+ years of commercial viability for a 17 MPG SUV. |
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18th May 2021 4:03pm |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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Here in the UK, we've had quite a lot of EV news here today. London is expanding its Ultra Low Emission Zone to encompass a much larger area, pushing many towards EVs. Lamborghini announced its first EV today, and also news of a strong surge toward EVs in 2020 sales. EVs are still too expensive, here, but as more are leasing now, it doesn't seem to concern buyers too much. The big green push continues...and today is the day I've received my new electric bike!
 Now left. |
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18th May 2021 4:26pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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"Electric cars are often dismissed for being too expensive
Renault Twizy: £11,995 SEAT Mii electric: £20,300 Fiat 500: £20,495 VW e-up!: £20,695 Smart EQ fortwo: £21,345 Smart EQ forfour: £21,940 MG 5 EV: £24,495 MG ZS EV: £25,495 MINI Electric: £25,500 Peugeot e-208: £26,725" https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/best-cars/99...rs-on-sale |
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18th May 2021 5:42pm |
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| Zed Member Since: 07 Oct 2017 Location: In the woods Posts: 3328 
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Which bike did you buy? WARNING. This post may contain sarcasm. |
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18th May 2021 6:25pm |
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| ResGuy68 Member Since: 15 May 2021 Location: Austin Posts: 26
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Thanks for the color. We often times focus in on our own respective "home" markets and miss the differing dynamics elsewhere. I am as guilty with this as anybody.
I personally don't believe that this car happens without the US market. There's too much uncertainty in the European market. The ROW is too fragmented and lacks a "demand factor market" to design for. I think that the offering has the potential to be a commercial success/blockbuster even if it never achieves a single sale in the EU/UK. Obviously, that would represent a missed opportunity. The wide interest of UK (and EU) members on this forum is a sign of the potential "take" in the EU. I would note that the US market carries much smaller "carrot" and "stick" incentives to drive EV adoption. The US currently provides: (i) an aggregate purchase subsidy of $2-10k (car and state dependent), (ii) CAFE penalty abatement of ~$2k (projected to increase to $7k in 2025), and (iii) gasoline tax avoidance of $250 per year (assuming 25mpg, 12k miles). My understanding is that these incentive structures are multiples higher in the EU and UK. As a consequence, EV penetration is only around 2% in the US (and has been ~ flat for the last 3-years), with even the most aggressive energy forecasts putting 2030 EV market share at 20-40% globally (and lower in the US).... now these projections may be wrong (I'm not one to deny the environmental benefits of transition). However, I can understand why the big guy chose to fund this project. I'd have done the same. Some interesting figures on the US energy market (JPM piece). Most of the good stuff starts at page 10. https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am...ck-amv.pdf Selected figure. https://www.defender2.net/gallery/albums/u...b_snip.PNG |
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18th May 2021 6:35pm |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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"Which bike did you buy?"
Zed, after so much research and six cancelled orders!!! (due to their lying about delivery times) I finally settled on the Himo Z20. We both wanted folding bikes. I really wanted a fat-tyre version, but they are either a rip off, or you can't get what you want. The Aventon Sinch and Maxfoot are two great-looking bikes, but neither company is at all interested in the UK market. I've had email discussions with their management to try and get them here, and even offered to act as importer. Aventon flat told me "We're not interested"!!! The Himo Z20 doesn't have suspension, that's the only negative, but then it is only around £690. Both the Sinch and Maxfoot are £1,600 - or would be if you could get them, and have got suspension. At one point, I was even half tempted to get a plane to New York and bring one back! I was getting that annoyed. I'm also annoyed that I had to go Chinese. I even got the interest of the Taiwan 'embassy' in London to help me get one from there instead, but they were only interested in me buying a hundred of them. And Taiwanese companies never returned my emails. My sixth cancelled order was only on Saturday when an ebay supplier lied (yet again) about getting me one. Ebay must attract every liar on Earth. So, anyway, I'm really pleased with it. It looks MUCH better than it did in the pictures, and rides great. We can get them both in the back of our car, and they weigh less than a bag of cement. Odd thing was though that it came without a UK plug, so I have had to order an adaptor for the charger. Now left. |
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18th May 2021 8:10pm |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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EVs will only grow, in Europe and the US, it's inevitable that the interest in them will take off as people experience them. I had one five years ago (fully electric), but they are way too expensive: https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/a...%20More%20 As soon as the prices come down (news today that won't be until 2027) interest will explode, even in the US! Admittedly, the US has some issues around EVs, like adequate charging points in very remote areas, but a recent survey in the US found 71% said they had "at least some interest" in getting an electric vehicle. The Grenadier may be getting the Hyundai hydrogen fuel cell system. Ineos owns the subsidiary Inovyn, which specialises in electrolysis to produce hydrogen for power generation and transportation. So a vested interest is there. Personally, I think chargeable EVs will win out. I come from the gas industry, and there's much talk of replacing natural gas with hydrogen, but the costs are truly enormous. It will probably be cheaper to convert everyone to electric. As I said, people need to try an EV, and we need more to buy them to drive the prices down. I'm just about to purchase a company van, and it will be an EV. Now left. |
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18th May 2021 8:27pm |
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| ResGuy68 Member Since: 15 May 2021 Location: Austin Posts: 26
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The Himo looks like a blast! Have fun with her. I've been debating something of the like for around town as well. |
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18th May 2021 10:36pm |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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Well, as you're in the US, you are spoilt for choice. I would say go for the MaxFoot, as either that or the Sinch is the best-looking and has suspension, but both companies are a joke, and may give you trouble if you need spare parts. The Mate X is quite good, but overpriced. As I said, I did a lot of research and finally plumped for the Himo Z20 when everything was taken into consideration. Here, they are £690 ($980) but I'm sure they would be cheaper in the US. One thing I really liked about the Himo Z20 is that they have incorporated a tyre pump into the stem of the seat. That's a nice touch.
https://mikeshouts.com/himo-z20-dual-mode-electric-bicycle/ Now left. |
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19th May 2021 7:18am |
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