 | Home > INEOS Grenadier > Who is going to buy it? |
 
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018   
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There's plenty of new ideas out there, as an example look to Polestar.
"Polestar UK has opened a new test drive hub in Milton Keynes and created semi-permanent sites around the country to meet demand." https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fl...ing-demand |
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16th May 2021 11:41am |
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| Rashers Member Since: 21 Jun 2015 Location: Norfolk Posts: 3529 
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Maybe a partnership with agricultural engineers would be a good idea.
The bigger ones have showrooms and workshops so this wouldn’t be a problem. They also do mobile servicing of farm vehicles so getting your Grenadier done at the same time as your combine / tractor would make perfect sense. ATS Euromaster could also be a good fit for servicing but as has been said, they lack a sales area. There are still plenty of Farmers who drive round in Defenders. I can see something like the Grenadier selling to them as a farm vehicle. Getting back to the Australian market, I watch Outback Truckers and it surprises me the number of ‘vintage’ American trucks which they seem to favour (at least from what the telly programme shows). There are a couple of cab over Volvos and DAFs but predominantly American hardware. This would imply that these older models are more robust, reliable and easier to fix at the road side than something more modern or dare I say it, European? The Greandier is aiming itself for this end of the market? Just my opinion. Never been to Australia in my life so maybe my opinions are scued by a TV production company  |
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16th May 2021 11:54am |
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| Bluest Member Since: 23 Apr 2016 Location: Lancashire Posts: 4225 
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I can see them going the ag machinery route for servicing. Small independent family type dealers a bit like Subaru used to be. Maybe only a single car in stock/for test drives etc. 2007 110 TDCi Station Wagon XS
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16th May 2021 12:49pm |
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| Philip Member Since: 09 Mar 2018 Location: England Posts: 510
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More likely another (L663) Defender. |
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16th May 2021 1:27pm |
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| ResGuy68 Member Since: 15 May 2021 Location: Austin Posts: 26 
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Guys, I think we're overthinking it on the profitability end.
Body on frame SUVs (and trucks) are a silly profitable segment. If they're allowed to sell it, and if the product isn't  ... there should be plenty of demand in the middle end of the market.
(All numbers herein are USD) I'll use Toyota as an example. They're average vehicle price was around $35k (USD) last year and their gross margin around 14%. From what we know about Ford, GM and Chrysler, it is likely that nearly all of Toyota's profit came from their Trucks and SUVs (implying gross margins on these vehicles are ~2x that of their overall fleet average at around 30%). This puts us in a world where truck and SUV gross revenues have trended towards the $45k range and gross costs in the $30k range. These gross costs would include all manufacturing, operations, administrative, marketing, excise taxes, etc. But, they would exclude costs relating to R&D (E.g. new car development). As we look at the Grenadier, $15k gross margin on 30k units would imply $450MM / yr in OPCF. If we assume the CAPEX on the car to be in the $1B range (as generally suggested), this is a 2.2-year simple payout... an outstanding return. If we're to instead look at the project using a 5-year simple payout returns hurdle, then they need to generate $200MM / yr in OPCF on 30k units... then they'll need to sell at a gross margin of $6.5k. On a cost basis likely to be in the ~$30k range based upon peer comps, this allows them to come to market in the upper-30s. This reflects average fleet-wide realizations. It also reflects current excise/tariff structures in-line with peer fleet averages. As emissions tariffs increase, one would expect this to become an incremental cost which would be added to cost. For instance, if INEOS is deficient 45 g/CO2 per mile traveled, then they will likely need to burden EU sales with an additional $4300 cost to reflect payment of their "penalty." Hopefully this helps. A long way of saying that Jeep, Toyota, Ford and GM have printed money while selling their trucks and SUVs at $40-45k. There is little reason why INEOS would be any different. |
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16th May 2021 2:15pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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The irony, if Dyson put one of each of his farms that would probably be the UK allocation for the year; similarly Ratcliffe could do the same for his Icelandic farms. |
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16th May 2021 4:02pm |
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| Rashers Member Since: 21 Jun 2015 Location: Norfolk Posts: 3529
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Looks like Jim has his business model spot on Supacat
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16th May 2021 4:13pm |
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| Grenadier Member Since: 23 Jul 2014 Location: The foot of Mont Blanc... Posts: 5878  
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 A bloke in town told me. He also has a great recommendation for the best burger in this part of the world. He's a ledge. Monsieur Le Grenadier
I've not been everywhere, but it's on my list..... 2011 Puma 110DC - Corris Grey |
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16th May 2021 8:46pm |
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| Black Puma Member Since: 31 Jan 2015 Location: Sydney Posts: 204 
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The local army barracks is now full of camo G-Wagons. Grenadier's next?
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17th May 2021 2:52am |
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| jim4244 Member Since: 13 Apr 2014 Location: Bedfordshire Posts: 816  
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I am looking forward to seeing the final on the road version. From what I have seen so far I like it and would be tempted to buy if the price and after sales support was right.
Jim |
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17th May 2021 9:41am |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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ResGuy68, you may well be correct, but Ineos still has to sell those 30,000 units. Isn't 2,500 units a month a tall order (once the initial excitement subsides) for a body-on-frame, niche vehicle like the Grenadier? I would think not if the price is lower than £50,000 (GBP from hereon), but I seriously doubt Mr Ratcliffe can keep the price down. The Wrangler is a very able vehicle (at less than £50,000) and its sale numbers were at 18,000 last month in North America alone, admittedly. But the Grenadier isn't going to 'do' a Jeep. Now left.
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17th May 2021 12:29pm |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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Jim, what would the price have to be for you? At what price would you rule it out? Now left. |
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17th May 2021 12:30pm |
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| ResGuy68 Member Since: 15 May 2021 Location: Austin Posts: 26
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I would agree that demand uncertainty is the biggest risk for this (and any new) vehicle.
They can probably hit the price segment I mentioned (if they choose). However, only time will tell if the demand is there to sustain purchasing. Given the strong demand for the Wrangler, Bronco and 4Runner, my leaning is yes. However, only time will tell. I can only speak to my leanings. I own a jeep and 4runner as stands. I'm drawn to the grenadier to replace one of them. I'm drawn to something quieter than the jeep or bronco...and with a more modern power train than the (4runner). New 4runners drive like ass and are trending towards the mall warriors. The fact that I LOVE the grenadier look is an added plus. We don't have an effective land cruiser competitor in the US. And, I don't see the Tahoe or crossovers (new defender, Subaru, Toyota highlander, etc.) as competitors in the same market segment which the grenadier is targeting. |
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17th May 2021 12:52pm |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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I only wish Ford sold the Bronco here, I would DEFINITELY buy it. Alas, the latest word from Ford is that is they won't. When it becomes an EV, maybe that will change their mind, as I heard that something to do with the positioning of the drivetrain makes right-hand drive not as simple as it usually is - don't know if that's true. You are so lucky over there! At the moment, a Wrangler Rubicon is top of my list. Wife says I can buy it when we move home
EDIT: We do have the baby Defender on the way, though - but a year late according to some. https://www.carscoops.com/2020/11/land-rov...r-and-fwd/ And with front wheel drive! Talk of it being sub £25,000. Yeah, right! Now left. |
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17th May 2021 4:12pm |
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