 | Home > Off Topic > Coronavirus Discussion/Advice/Assistance Thread (Part 2) |
 
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018   
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There's truth in what you say.
On another element ~ this looks a mess: "Parents working at Jaguar Land Rover Halewood told childcare leave will be unpaid https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liver...r-19573368 Surprised to see someone making a Range Rover Evoque classed as a "critical worker". |
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7th Jan 2021 7:31am |
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| J77 Member Since: 04 Nov 2019 Location: Fife Posts: 3388 
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I thought car production would be suspended as per the last lockdown. 24MY 90 D250 HSE, Tasman Blue
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8th Jan 2021 9:47pm |
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| Pickles Member Since: 26 May 2013 Location: Melbourne Posts: 3782  
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We're still not out of it.
Several suburbs of Brisbane have been locked down, interstate travel is banned, State borders have been closed etc, there is danger from a new "strain" of the Virus which may have escaped into the community. Pickles. |
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8th Jan 2021 10:10pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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And the latest poll I've seen:  Click image to enlarge "Some 72% (+4 on the last poll) think the government has not acted fast enough, with 42% (+4) thinking they are definitely not acting fast enough." And on lockdowns specifically: "The public appear to want to err on the side of caution in terms of Covid restrictions. More than three in five (64%) said they would prefer “a government who quickly puts lockdown measures in place, even if that means that sometimes measures are put in place that didn’t need to be”. Only 25% said they would prefer “a government who tries the hardest they can not to put lockdown measures in place, even if that means that sometimes decisions are made later than they would otherwise have been”. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/...esign-poll |
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10th Jan 2021 6:45am |
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| rockster57 Member Since: 15 Nov 2014 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 937 
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Guys, if I were you, I wouldn’t waste any time discussing polls. Can you really rely on the results of any poll or will it simply say whatever it is the people who commissioned it want it to say?
The Guardian one quoted above claims to have polled 2003 uk adults. That’s 0.003% of the uk population! |
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10th Jan 2021 8:45am |
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| Grenadier Member Since: 23 Jul 2014 Location: The foot of Mont Blanc... Posts: 5804  
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Not sure you can really trust the primary left-leaning paper for an objective opinion of a right leaning government and certainly when they neither provide a link to the survey or outline all the questions. Ask the right question at the right time to the right target audience and get the answer you want.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Government is doing an outstanding job of managing the epidemic, but I'm also not slating them because almost no 'similar' country is, whatever certain papers, the Beeb, the first ministers of Wales and Scotland etc would like you to believe. We cannot compare ourselves to South Korea (different population density/health levels, different government control over the population, different experience - and therefore pre preparation - of Covid epidemics, etc) or New Zealand (isolated island, tiny economy, population spread over large areas, little international movement of people to/through their borders, far lower levels of international trade, and none by land etc), the two world-leading countries. We have to compare apples with apples. But we can compare ourselves to European countries with similar populations, population density, healthcare systems, economies etc. And the decisions being made by them are more or less similar to the UK. Certainly here in France. But if you look at who the virus affects and how it spreads versus the detailed demographics of each country, we should be one of the worst affected. Sadly. Cold region; high number of elderly confined to care homes; high numbers of ethnic minorities - who seem to be more at risk; densely packed urban-centric living; highest levels of obesity and diabetes in Europe; at-stretch healthcare system because of low personal annual contributions (12% Nat Ins versus, for example, 45% in France); high levels of international movement through or to the country (far higher than any equivalent country in Europe); high levels of land based trade - good vector; devolved health care systems fragmenting policy; high movement of people for work, via an extensive public transport network; liberal governance - harder to 'shut down' people and economies; economy heavily biased towards service sector, therefore more adversely affected by 'lockdowns' etc etc etc. And it is worth remembering that no other country in Europe has the medical data collection and reporting infrastructure that the UK has, for which we are rightly considered world leaders. Our stats are probably the closest to 'true' across any G20 country. Certainly within Europe there is almost no other country that comes close to this level of contributing factors. Not one. What the government has done has not been perfect, I'm certainly no apologist, but we have to look at the disease, and also exactly what makes up the UK, when looking at how we've managed when compared to other EU countries. I personally believe we are 'the perfect storm'. So with regard to public opinion, this should be properly explained, but it won't be. The media don't like Johnson so say nothing. Labour and the devolved governments don't like Johnson so score political points. Meanwhile the government cannot really say anything because it will seem like moaning. And yet they still have to make decisions that can cost lives, ruin businesses, affect the economy for years to come etc etc. It's easy to sit in an armchair and raise eyebrows from afar, but we've never had anything like this in our lifetimes, and whilst I agree that politicians can have very very thick skin, do we really believe it's so thick that Johnson, Hancock etc are not being kept up at night by this awful situation and deserve the constant wrath of the media and critiscm by a population that frankly has absolutely no base to talk from because they're not making (nor have they ever made) Macro and Micro level decisions for an entire country during a first, and ever evolving pandemic. They can't win. Monsieur Le Grenadier I've not been everywhere, but it's on my list..... 2011 Puma 110DC - Corris Grey |
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10th Jan 2021 8:50am |
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| rockster57 Member Since: 15 Nov 2014 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 937
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Excellent points, very well expressed Monsieur.
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10th Jan 2021 9:03am |
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| Zed Member Since: 07 Oct 2017 Location: In the woods Posts: 3256 
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UK has the most cases in the world per capita and most deaths in Europe. It's absolutely heartbreaking. WARNING.
This post may contain sarcasm. |
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10th Jan 2021 9:08am |
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| Grenadier Member Since: 23 Jul 2014 Location: The foot of Mont Blanc... Posts: 5804
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Zed, Yup. But that's if you believe the data sets released by other countries. My old man spent 40 years in medical research, working with most European countries at some point, as well as Japan, US, Canada, Australia/NZ etc. We discussed this just a couple of weeks ago and he says he has absolutely no confidence in the data coming from other countries.
For example, our genome testing is devolved across the four countries and when we discovered this new variant the Welsh test centre tested for more genome variants in one week than France had done during the entire epidemic. Just one example. Also I spoke to a German doctor who's brother is the chief coroner for Hamburg. Policy in Germany is decided by each region (Hamburg city being one) not separately, and what they do and what/how they report differs region to region. In Hamburg every body that comes to the coroner's office suspected of having Covid is autopsied, however it is only reported as a Covid death (and added to the national stats) if the Coroner determines that they have died of ('OF') C-19 and not just 'with' it. Makes complete sense to me. In the meantime we are listing anyone who has died within 28 days of a positive death. So if you die of Cancer or an accident but had a positive Covid test 28 days previously but were ASYMPTOMATIC, you'll still be added to the stats. Every one. Does that make sense? Is that a true reflection of the crisis and does it offer a fair barometer versus the German situation? It is tragic, but we won't know how the UK has fared when compared to other countries for years to come, if ever. We will never ever be able to ascertain if the data-sets from each country are both accurate or uses exactly the same data-points as the UK. Monsieur Le Grenadier I've not been everywhere, but it's on my list..... 2011 Puma 110DC - Corris Grey |
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10th Jan 2021 9:25am |
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| Zed Member Since: 07 Oct 2017 Location: In the woods Posts: 3256
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Even more shocking considering we are an island in control of our own borders. Apparently from next week everyone entering the country will have to provide a negative test but why on earth wasn't that implemented from day one? WARNING.
This post may contain sarcasm. |
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10th Jan 2021 9:45am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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You know about statistics and sampling? It may not be perfect but it's a valid attempt to understand the larger population; the maths is there to demonstrate confidence levels. "Our methodology starts with a nationally representative sample based on demographics and adds in a series of questions to make it politically representative as well" https://www.opinium.com/political-polling/ I'm happy to view alternative polls which may represent differing views, it all helps inform the debate; but trying to put down any particular poll on the grounds of the sample number in the way you have is bad maths. |
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10th Jan 2021 9:56am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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Isolated island - by what measure? In today's world very few places are isolated. Tiny economy - GDP per capita is approx the same as UK. Population spread over large areas - "While NZ has a lower population than many other countries it is important to note that the vast majority of New Zealand's population live in cities or towns that are more comparable in density to many other countries." Click image to enlarge https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-zealand...heazlewood Little international movement of people to/through their borders - "Many people are saying that NZ is isolated and does not have many international visitors. While NZ has a comparatively small population and comparatively small tourist numbers in terms of total visitors, nevertheless as a percentage of the population the visitor numbers are quite high" https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-zealand...heazlewood For every 10 persons in UK we get 5.4 international visitors whilst New Zealand gets nearly 50% more at 7.5. Far lower levels of international trade - by value per head UK is higher but not hugely. and none by land - how does that differ from the UK, both being islands? |
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10th Jan 2021 10:46am |
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| rockster57 Member Since: 15 Nov 2014 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 937
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If that works for you and for others, that’s fine. I respect your views albeit they are different to my own. The level of trust I have in political polls matches the trust I have in politicians. Sadly that’s roughly none whatsoever  |
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10th Jan 2021 11:15am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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Yet again, I find myself agreeing with you.
There's truth in what you say. Thumbs Up My only query here was this:
And whether it was factually correct. |
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10th Jan 2021 1:08pm |
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