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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 11018

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green
Which is why the all deaths figure is perhaps a better starting point than getting into the secondary issue of whether CV19 had any influence on any individual death...

After the huge bump in all deaths in the March-June period, there should have been a dip to below average for the next period. There hasn't been that drop ~ so who is dying now to keep the average "normal"?
Post #863189 23rd Oct 2020 10:43am
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LandRoverAnorak



Member Since: 17 Jul 2011
Location: Surrey
Posts: 11324

United Kingdom 
In the context of the big picture though, that's just semantics. Whilst I've no doubt that some people with the virus have died from unrelated causes, the overall trend is clearly upwards. Even if that scenario applied to half of all recorded Covid deaths, which is clearly an exaggeration, there are still tens of thousands that have died from it. Add to that that it is both invisible and luck of the draw whether you'll suffer a little or a lot, then it's a significant risk. Darren

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Post #863190 23rd Oct 2020 10:45am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 11018

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green
Joe the Plumber wrote:
I wouldn't have know anything then, so of course not.

But the death rate isn't increasing now. Your graphs show that. Why the worry?


It wasn't increasing on the 26th March, so you could have said what you are saying now then...some of us worry because of what came immediately after then might be about to happen again... the 2nd wave...
Post #863195 23rd Oct 2020 11:00am
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Doc P



Member Since: 03 Apr 2016
Location: Midlands
Posts: 565

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS CSW Firenze Red
Joe the Plumber wrote:
All I can say is that shows 'Deaths WITH coronavirus', not 'FROM coronavirus'.

One of my neighbours died with it, but her death was from several strokes she had, before she caught it in hospital.

Please don't think I'm trivialising it though. I know it can be serious for some people.


Joe's right. There's a large proportion of deaths that test positive at some point during their hospital episode (not necessarily at the start, as patients are screened for coronavirus at regular intervals during their stay - say, weekly) who die from other causes. They die 'with' it rather than 'from' it.

The ONS is keen to code all Covid-related deaths and so if it's mentioned on the death certificate it'll go into the data pool and if they test positive it'll almost always go on the death certificate - even if it's only contributory. If you die within 28 days of a positive test, you die with or from Covid-19.

A large proportion of our deaths died in the end having survived the initial insult of Covid-19 only to then get a secondary, 'hospital-acquired' infection and succumb to that Some things are potentially due to the coronavirus' unique nastiness too - like the tendency for blood to clot more. Things like strokes, heart-attacks, pulmonary emboli etc.. All of that is 'potentially' a result of Covid-19 in the presence of a positive test (or clinical suspicion with a negative test) but is different from the classical lung-related disease and all of that potentially fatal in its own right.

We've unfortunately had deaths due to complications of treatment too - like giving anticoagulant medication to prevent blood clots/strokes etc. which caused a fatal bleed in someone (because nobody knows what dose of such drugs you should give, or indeed whether there's a risk/benefit ration the right way round at all!).

Others have died with repeatedly negative tests for Covid-19 but with such 'Covid-like' disease that they were coded as having died from Covid-19 anyway!

Don't believe all of the numbers as they can be misleading in other words. The truth is though that there certainly are now increasing numbers of patients needing hospital treatment for Covid-19. That is irrefutable and real, I'm afraid.

PS - What's even 'funnier' is that we still have very little to treat it with, only effectively being left with damage-limitation by using a bloody steroid! (after over 70 years of intensive care medicine, the best evidence for anything useful falls down to a steroid Rolling Eyes ) and even that's reserved for the sickest, because giving it to the less sick means they will die more often if you do!!
Post #863197 23rd Oct 2020 11:11am
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90 Dreamer



Member Since: 13 Jul 2019
Location: Oop North
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United Kingdom 2016 Defender 90 Puma 2.2 HT Corris Grey
lies, damn lies and statistics.............. Embarassed
Post #863203 23rd Oct 2020 11:45am
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Muddybigdog



Member Since: 11 Apr 2014
Location: Suffolk
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United Kingdom 2007 Defender 90 Puma 2.4 XS CSW Zambezi Silver
Doc P, having been on the front line and amongst the thick of the pandemic, do you think that the tangerine clown running for president had the virus?

BTW MANY still think you and your colleagues are heroes, even though the appreciation seems to have dwindled Bow down Jumped ship to reliability - Mitsubishi L200
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Post #863286 23rd Oct 2020 9:19pm
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Doc P



Member Since: 03 Apr 2016
Location: Midlands
Posts: 565

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS CSW Firenze Red
Yes - he and the First Lady. I suppose one could think it was some sort of publicity stunt but it sounded like Melania wasn’t very well!

Thanks for the comment. I am just doing my job. Many staff were redeployed to ITU and found seeing so much death and, I’m afraid to say, suffering very traumatic. They don’t have the thicker skin you need to work in such an environment and very few of them will want to do it again. Lots of ITU staff don’t want to do it again!

The second wave, if it hits, will be harder and more damaging. Let’s pay our nurses what they deserve.
Post #863305 24th Oct 2020 7:19am
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90 Dreamer



Member Since: 13 Jul 2019
Location: Oop North
Posts: 2141

United Kingdom 2016 Defender 90 Puma 2.2 HT Corris Grey
So another lockdown England wise (Wales already in and Nicola about to announce further measures)
Post #864637 31st Oct 2020 7:43pm
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Rashers



Member Since: 21 Jun 2015
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 3484

United Kingdom 2014 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 USW Corris Grey
It seems the infection rate is far far worse than even the worst case scenario which the Government and the Health Officials had feared.

I tend to class myself as very lucky. I live in a nice house with a big garden and some fields I can walk round in the country. I cannot imagine what I would be feeling if I lived on the 23rd Floor of a block of flats in Tower Hamlets Sad

I was chatting to a young Guy I used to work with tonight. He is single and lives in a house with a tiny garden he shares with a workmate. He is an outside kind of a Guy who likes group activities and participating in group sports. He is dreading four weeks of being on his own. I really feel for him and all who are feeling the same as him.

Lockdown this time will probably not come with the wall to wall blue sky and sunshine which we witnessed last time so getting out for exercise will be more challenging.

It hasn't come as a surprise to me.
Post #864657 31st Oct 2020 8:48pm
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90 Dreamer



Member Since: 13 Jul 2019
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Posts: 2141

United Kingdom 2016 Defender 90 Puma 2.2 HT Corris Grey
No real suprise either, just amazed at the level of continuing incompetence even to the point of selected 'leaks' and then fecking around for over 2hours waiting for an official announcement.......

On the flip side the 'world beating' test & trace is finding more positives, not really a suprise
What would be interesting to know is what % of tests result in a find??
Post #864664 31st Oct 2020 9:01pm
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Pickles



Member Since: 26 May 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3782

Australia 2013 Defender 90 Puma 2.2 CSW Keswick Green
I've made several posts on this thread, & as I'm a long way away from you guys, I've tried to sound as if I'm not telling anyone "how to suck eggs".
So, with that out of the way, I simply cannot understand why Boris has not ordered a stricter lockdown, and is not doing more to combat this virus.
From what has happened in Aussie, the only thing that worked for us was a VERY STRICT LOCKDOWN,..not allowed out of the house except for emergency, apart from one hour walk. Not allowed to drive car except for emergency (and if you do drive without a good reason, emergency etc, you'll cop a $5K fine), As I said, allowed to go for a one hour walk, but must wear a mask & maintain 2m distance, all pubs & cafes, restaurants, shopping centers etc ALL CLOSED. Work from home if you can,....lots of people working from home, many city offices deserted,..many will continue to work from home, even after the virus has been beaten! Not allowed to travel out of greater Melbourne area,....if you do, a $5K fine will be your reward.
No church services...., Weddings & funerals only 10 people allowed. We in Victoria have been subject to these rules & many others for over 3 months and are now slowly getting back to normal, well "Covert Normal",...distancing, masks, and many other rules still apply,....we will not be able to be normal until there is a vaccine.
The secret is "distancing/isolation" etc...keeping your distance from others, & getting tested.
Pickles.
NB: If any of you guys have any questions at all about what I've said, I'd be happy to try to answer them.
Post #864678 31st Oct 2020 10:14pm
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seriesonenut



Member Since: 19 Nov 2014
Location: Essex
Posts: 1210

United Kingdom 
Hi Pickles, what has happened to your health service non covid? Here we have not seen a dentist in 6 months, Doctors surgeries are closed and everything has gone on line. My fear is many more will die from non covid illness, we may never know. 2010 XS USW
1957 Series One 88 diesel
1958 Series One 88 4x2
Post #864685 31st Oct 2020 10:34pm
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ARC99



Member Since: 19 Feb 2013
Location: North Yorkshire
Posts: 1831

United Kingdom 2008 Defender 110 Puma 2.4 USW Cairns Blue
seriesonenut wrote "Here we have not seen a dentist in 6 months, Doctors surgeries are closed and everything has gone on line."

I have the mis pleasure of 4 visits to my dentist since July an several to my GP after a telephone consultations.
Dentist are working under strict guidelines and have to wear masks that seal to the face or full hoods which pressurised air these have to be tested to ensure air cannot get in or out around the face, what is a 15 minute appointment for a patient turns into a 45 minute appointment for the dental staff. The Doctors surgery I am registered with operate with consultations by online and telephone with a face to face consultation if it felt appropriate, ten minutes for a patient is 30 minutes of a GP's time as items have to be cleaned after each patient. I get telephone calls from consultants at the local hospital anywhere up to 9.00pm to check on my ailments, to book me in for x-rays, blood tests etc all to be done one after the other on the same day. When one needs something doing he will talk to other consultants to see if they require anything doing all to save me having to make repeated journeys and putting myself and others at risk.

We live in difficult times at the moment and if everyone stopped for a moment and thought "are my actions putting others and myself at risk of illness or death" then we may be in a better place right now. Don't make old people mad.
We don't like being old in the first place,
so it doesn't take much to Censored us off.

Richard
Post #864726 1st Nov 2020 9:33am
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seriesonenut



Member Since: 19 Nov 2014
Location: Essex
Posts: 1210

United Kingdom 
Hi. Be assured I am not making any criticism of anyone and we cant expect a near normal service. I am just interested after reading of the more severe lockdown Pickles described in how it has also impacted the wider health services. 2010 XS USW
1957 Series One 88 diesel
1958 Series One 88 4x2
Post #864733 1st Nov 2020 10:01am
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Rashers



Member Since: 21 Jun 2015
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 3484

United Kingdom 2014 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 USW Corris Grey
I know people who have not managed to see a Dentist in years Whistle

Mind you, that is by choice rather than by circumstances.

Our Dentist is doing emergency work. They can't do normal appointments due to the length of time it takes to clean down after the procedure.

The Nurses at our Doctors are the same. Everything gets wiped and cleaned after each appointment. In normal times, the Nurses were nearly always be ahead with their appointments.

They appear to be at the front line as the Doctors are mainly doing telephone appointments and not directly seeing patients unless it is absolutely necessary. I know quite a few people who have been called in to see the Doctor after a telephone appointment as the Doctor wanted an examination which is encouraging.

Personally, I love the idea of telephone appointments for those ailments that don't involve having a finger poked up my bum or a stethoscope - or both Laughing But I can see how things may be missed. I never liked the idea of sitting in a waiting area with everyone coughing and hacking all over me.
Post #864742 1st Nov 2020 10:58am
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