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Chicken Drumstick



Member Since: 17 Aug 2020
Location: Near MK
Posts: 751

United Kingdom 
H1Tad wrote:
Quote:
I guess some people are also blind to the truth, even when starring them in the face too Laughing


Sorry but I work in the pharma research industry as a data architect. I am very much opposed to taking an isolated, context-less dataset and automatically assuming that the numbers mean what I want them to mean.

The only thing you can extrapolate from your data series is that disco sales declined while defender sales rose. Whether there is a relationship between the two is - again, speculation.


No, that would be correlation, not speculation. As the numbers are factual. It isn't being speculated or guessed that some went up while others went down.

As for the relationship between them.... impossible to prove definitively, but that doesn't stop them correlating. And KISS would suggest the correlation to be significant.

Especially when it is easy to match up with real world people who traded in RRS or Disco's for a new Defender.

I know quite a few people with the new model and part of a local Land Rover club and scene. I don't know of a single new Defender owner who chopped in an old Defender and there are very few owners who weren't already JLR product owners. In the USA this might be different has JLR (and all past versions of the company) have been utter rubbish at selling cars in the largest car market in the World.

Therefore "observationally" I've not seen an influx of brand new buyers to the JLR brand. Just existing customer buying this model instead of that.
Post #1053613 1st Dec 2024 10:53pm
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A1C6



Member Since: 15 Oct 2024
Location: Australia
Posts: 53

Australia 
Defender high roof I think is what people need. It’d be pretty sick as well. Kind of like the Disco 2 with its stepped roof.
Post #1053615 1st Dec 2024 11:01pm
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Moo



Member Since: 01 Oct 2021
Location: UK
Posts: 1388

Ukraine 
Or they just do the next Discovery properly Thumbs Up Eiger Grey MY23 D250 SE with bits. Known as Noddy.
Post #1053618 1st Dec 2024 11:42pm
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zilch



Member Since: 11 Sep 2019
Location: Whitsundays & Sydney
Posts: 820

Australia 
Chicken Drumstick wrote:
Especially when it is easy to match up with real world people who traded in RRS or Disco's for a new Defender.

Therefore "observationally" I've not seen an influx of brand new buyers to the JLR brand. Just existing customer buying this model instead of that.


Outside of the data, when I ordered ours back in 2019 just after the launch, as a replacement for our
2010 RRS (which we still have), our dealer told us at the time that many of the orders where by
existing customers, a large chunk discovery owners, but who had not and would not make the move from the D4 to the D5 irrespective of subtle discount offers. The D5 was deemed by many as not a true
Disco, but more RRS like. The dealer’s perspective was the Defender helped them retain customers
who would more than likely move to the Japanese brands once their D3/4’s where due replacement..
so the Defender was good initially for brand retention and then some modest customer expansion in
the Aussie market yet another pommie bar steward down under

MY20 110 P400 SE Defender
MY10 3.0 RR Sport
Post #1053619 2nd Dec 2024 12:47am
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TexasRover



Member Since: 24 Nov 2022
Location: Paris
Posts: 1073

France 2002 Defender 110 Td5 DCPU Chawton White
We currently have (again) a D4 after having owned 3x D4 and 1x D3 (in different countries hence the turnover), but I would never ever consider the D5. I am sure it is a great car but I don't see any market differentiator or special appeal.

There are many cars in the D5 segment from other brands that make The D5 just too bend in for me (Ford Explorer etc)

The D4 and (new) Defender on the other hand don't blend in and the D4 is just such a practical vehicle (don't own the new Defender). D4 is a van with style. If only it had a better engine selection. Here in France all you can get is that crappy tdv6.. Same engine in the D5 actually so not even an improvement there.
Post #1053623 2nd Dec 2024 8:10am
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LR Nuts



Member Since: 10 Aug 2022
Location: UK
Posts: 1131

 
" The D4 and (new) Defender on the other hand don't blend in ......"



Click image to enlarge



Click image to enlarge



......yes they do in this drivers mind ....... Rolling with laughter
Post #1053625 2nd Dec 2024 8:47am
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Chicken Drumstick



Member Since: 17 Aug 2020
Location: Near MK
Posts: 751

United Kingdom 
zilch wrote:
Chicken Drumstick wrote:
Especially when it is easy to match up with real world people who traded in RRS or Disco's for a new Defender.

Therefore "observationally" I've not seen an influx of brand new buyers to the JLR brand. Just existing customer buying this model instead of that.


Outside of the data, when I ordered ours back in 2019 just after the launch, as a replacement for our
2010 RRS (which we still have), our dealer told us at the time that many of the orders where by
existing customers, a large chunk discovery owners, but who had not and would not make the move from the D4 to the D5 irrespective of subtle discount offers. The D5 was deemed by many as not a true
Disco, but more RRS like. The dealer’s perspective was the Defender helped them retain customers
who would more than likely move to the Japanese brands once their D3/4’s where due replacement..
so the Defender was good initially for brand retention and then some modest customer expansion in
the Aussie market

Agree the actual vehicle is what Land Rover needed, the D5 is ok, I don't hate it, but what a cock-up of a model it is when you look at what D3/4 owners actually wanted.

For some reason in the car industry, there is this weird belief that models need to evolve and be moved up a segment or two. No idea why a vehicle can't just be what it was and let new models be introduced into new segments.
Post #1053637 2nd Dec 2024 11:21am
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Moo



Member Since: 01 Oct 2021
Location: UK
Posts: 1388

Ukraine 
^^^

Mercedes have done this well with the G-Wagon. Eiger Grey MY23 D250 SE with bits. Known as Noddy.
Post #1053639 2nd Dec 2024 11:58am
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dspuk



Member Since: 25 Oct 2024
Location: South
Posts: 20

United Kingdom 
Had some fun reading the numbers. I agree that the only thing that is "fact" is Defender sales are rising and RRS and Disco sales dropping. That they were both dropping for 4 years prior to the Defender introduction is clear, but why would need analysis. The drop seems to be on the same trendline trajectory it would have been on, Defender or not - one would assume a sharper drop had it been more directly linked.

Causes could be theft security issues meaning people were buying less, company tax breaks and luxury car tax increases/removal, or indeed the Defender introduction. Covid will also have had an effect due to parts shortages.

It is worth noting that JLR are not a volume manufacturer, like Ford, or Nissan, my old employer. As such the reduction in sales for the other models could be a planned and deliberate supply chain constriction to move sales across to more profitable product lines.

Be interested to understand the Disco bump in 17, and what caused that and if there are further factors such as sales and marketing incentives. 23 and 24 figures wopuld also give a bigger picture.


Click image to enlarge


Last edited by dspuk on 2nd Dec 2024 2:00pm. Edited 3 times in total
Post #1053644 2nd Dec 2024 12:14pm
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TexasRover



Member Since: 24 Nov 2022
Location: Paris
Posts: 1073

France 2002 Defender 110 Td5 DCPU Chawton White
I was reading today that UK EV sales are showing healthy numbers BUT likely because of the UK punitively fines imposed on car companies that don't make the EV targets: Car companies are registering cars without selling them in order to avoid the fines.

So this data can be all skewed for reasons other than customer's natural purchasing behaviour
Post #1053648 2nd Dec 2024 1:22pm
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dspuk



Member Since: 25 Oct 2024
Location: South
Posts: 20

United Kingdom 
Quote:
I was reading today that UK EV sales are showing healthy numbers BUT likely because of the UK punitively fines imposed on car companies that don't make the EV targets


It’s an odd one. The market here has become flooded with cheaper Chinese made EV’s. The tax breaks for ownership have reduced dramatically though and the charging network remains fragmented and woeful.

Dealer registrations might be on the up but their actual ownership seems to be fading.

Sales are swaying more towards hybrids here, not as “mild” as the Defenders, but mild enough to not reduce power but still have some sort of tax breaks, be it private sales costs or company car.
Post #1053651 2nd Dec 2024 1:49pm
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dspuk



Member Since: 25 Oct 2024
Location: South
Posts: 20

United Kingdom 
Double post. Edited to remove second one.
Post #1053652 2nd Dec 2024 1:49pm
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H1Tad



Member Since: 20 Jul 2024
Location: Maine
Posts: 126

United States 
TexasRover wrote:
I was reading today that UK EV sales are showing healthy numbers BUT likely because of the UK punitively fines imposed on car companies that don't make the EV targets: Car companies are registering cars without selling them in order to avoid the fines.

So this data can be all skewed for reasons other than customer's natural purchasing behaviour


Private EV sales of 59,500 are 3.8 per cent down year on year, true fleet registrations of 142,174 are only 1.6 per cent up; it is dealer and manufacturer registrations which are up 12.8 and 27.8 per cent respectively, with demonstrator cars up 37.7 per cent and Motability registrations of 48,750 are a 110.4 per cent increase.


So basically the entire "growth" of the EV market in the UK has been a fraud.

"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics".

Quote:
No, that would be correlation, not speculation.


Yes, the data series are correlated as I pointed out in my initial post. The speculation is the assignment of causation of that correlation. Speculation, especially speculation driven by informed observation isn't necessarily a bad thing. We humans do it every day to live our lives.

Either way. This horse has been thoroughly beaten. 2022 Defender 110 SE P400 Tasman Blue Expedition and Cold weather package
2003 Hummer H1 P400 Firehouse Red
2008 Toyota FJ Cruiser


Last edited by H1Tad on 2nd Dec 2024 2:08pm. Edited 1 time in total
Post #1053654 2nd Dec 2024 2:07pm
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Grenadier



Member Since: 23 Jul 2014
Location: The foot of Mont Blanc...
Posts: 5829

France 2011 Defender 110 Puma 2.4 DCPU Corris Grey
[quote="Chicken Drumstick"][quote="zilch"]
Chicken Drumstick wrote:

Agree the actual vehicle is what Land Rover needed, the D5 is ok, I don't hate it, but what a cock-up of a model it is when you look at what D3/4 owners actually wanted.

For some reason in the car industry, there is this weird belief that models need to evolve and be moved up a segment or two. No idea why a vehicle can't just be what it was and let new models be introduced into new segments.


This is what I don’t get about LR’s (Gerry McGovern’s?) decision to recreate the spirit of the Defender? Why did they need to do it?

Many people have said what a success the ND has been, and what a great vehicle it is, which, if that’s true, would have been the case come what may. So would it have been any different had it been branded ‘Discovery’? No, it wouldn’t. Because it absolutely meets what most Discovery owners are looking for, and importantly weren’t getting from the D5. Most, there will always be exceptions.

This would then have allowed LR to redevelop the Defender in the image of the <2016 model, but better. Better reliability ( Whistle ), better power, better comfort. In essence, the Grenadier, but with better modularity and at a better price point. And it could then have tapped into all its old markets which it once monopolised: military, police, utilities, NGOs etc.

LR could have had double-bubble. Increased sales from an excellent new SUV that would likely have been as good as they are for the ND now, but they’d also have had the sales from an all new utility Defender, which if Grenadier sales are anything to go by, could have been as many as 20k units per year…and that would be without tapping into the military/police/MR/NGO/etc markets. The UKAF alone have 15k LRs which they’ve had to extend the life of because they can’t find a suitable replacement.

But no, LR ignored its legacy, turned a blind eye to its DNA, threw out tens of thousands of loyal customers, (private as well as commercial) to create another SUV that is clearly NOT a Defender, and (IMHO) IS a Discovery. It was hugely short sighted as it could have had the best of both worlds.

Personally, I think this is GmcG’s doing. I genuinely think he couldn’t abide that there was a vehicle in his fleet that didn’t have his DNA in it, and also a vehicle didn’t appeal to his image of LR being a luxury brand aimed at successful, urbane, beautiful people. The idea of an entirely classless workhorse that could be all things to all people, was anathema to him.

So whilst the Defender is LR’s most successful model (ever?) it could have had equal success in unit number terms as the Disco, and then an improved Defender would have retained old defender owners, plus reclaimed those utility markets. Whilst the idea of model evolution is valid, there is also an arguement that certain vehicles need to remain, in essence, the same. The best example of this is the Porsche 911, which as a legacy vehicle is basically the same. One could also make the same argument for the F150, which whilst clearly an all new truck, is basically the same ‘concept’ or ‘purpose’ as the original model from 1948. Monsieur Le Grenadier

I've not been everywhere, but it's on my list.....

2011 Puma 110DC - Corris Grey


Last edited by Grenadier on 2nd Dec 2024 2:16pm. Edited 1 time in total
Post #1053655 2nd Dec 2024 2:08pm
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TexasRover



Member Since: 24 Nov 2022
Location: Paris
Posts: 1073

France 2002 Defender 110 Td5 DCPU Chawton White
dspuk wrote:
Quote:
I was reading today that UK EV sales are showing healthy numbers BUT likely because of the UK punitively fines imposed on car companies that don't make the EV targets


It’s an odd one. The market here has become flooded with cheaper Chinese made EV’s. The tax breaks for ownership have reduced dramatically though and the charging network remains fragmented and woeful.

Dealer registrations might be on the up but their actual ownership seems to be fading.

Sales are swaying more towards hybrids here, not as “mild” as the Defenders, but mild enough to not reduce power but still have some sort of tax breaks, be it private sales costs or company car.


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/...cle-market
Post #1053656 2nd Dec 2024 2:13pm
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