 | Home > Off Topic > JLR sales - Defender is a success! |
 
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952  
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...except when the button says 'Reply'
 Now left. |
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21st Jul 2021 9:08pm |
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| 22900013A Member Since: 23 Dec 2010 Location: Oxfordshire Posts: 3150 
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You can't quote the last post in a thread. 2011 110 USW
1973 Series III 1-Ton 1972 Series III 1-Ton Cherrypicker 1969 IIA 1-Ton 1966 IIA 88" |
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22nd Jul 2021 4:46am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018 
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I think you have to register to view the graphs? |
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22nd Jul 2021 5:05am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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I think many people see the link... Another slant on whether new Defender is cannibalising D5 sales. Car Industry Analysis (@lovecarindustry) Tweeted: There’s speculation that the new #LandRoverDefender is cannibalizing the #LandRoverDiscovery. Although the data supports this, the current gen Discovery has been posting sales drops way before the introduction of the new Defender. Arrival of Defender accelerated drop of Discovery https://t.co/etpw13Onw5 https://twitter.com/lovecarindustry/status...29216?s=20  Click image to enlarge |
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22nd Jul 2021 8:54am |
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| Orchard Member Since: 07 May 2015 Location: Usually walking the dog Posts: 258 |
Nope, you can't draw that conclusion. Just because two things appear to be linked doesn't mean they are. I eat Pizza on Fridays and my daughter goes out and drinks wine on Friday, so I could draw a chart showing there is a trend that links them, but of course they are not - you have to show actual causation, not just 'everyone thinks' ! 2015 90 XS SW Bowler
1998 TD5 CSW |
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22nd Jul 2021 9:35am |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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I'm not sure your pizza example serves the argument well; but I would agree that without asking every single person who buys a new Defender whether they would have bought a D5 if the Defender did not exist, it will never be known.
So it's a question of looking at what information exists, and taking a view from there. Many do, including JLR execs, who have commented on the new Defender canibalising D5 sales albeit hopefully at a much higher overall volume of sales and only to an "acceptable" levels. You only have to look at the anecdotal evidence in threads on here to know it is a real thing. It is very much a side issue to "Defender is a success" though. That's still whether they can make the business case of 100k sales per annum. |
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22nd Jul 2021 12:05pm |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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Yes, it's called correlation. Correlation doesn't mean causation.
In much the same way that there isn't a direct causal link between increased CO2 emissions and climate temperature. It may look like they're linked...
...but the underlying conditions are what matter. In the case of climate, CO2 may have a link, but there is what's termed 'climate sensitivity' which gets in the way of that link. Short term variability overrides any visual link, and history points to no link at all.
So what first may appear to be gospel, ain't necessarily so. Now left. |
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22nd Jul 2021 12:14pm |
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| What puddle? Member Since: 25 Oct 2013 Location: Reading Posts: 952
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Having said that...
There is no way that Disco and Defender sales aren't linked! I mean, it's obvious, innit? Now left. |
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22nd Jul 2021 12:15pm |
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| AMBxx Member Since: 24 Jul 2016 Location: York Posts: 1032 
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Looking at that chart, the only possible causality is that the new Discovery destroyed Discovery sales all on its own. Didn't need any help from the Defender!
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22nd Jul 2021 12:31pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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Don't forget that only shows European registrations...there's the full global position which looks like this:
Click image to enlarge In 2016 sales of Defenders and Discos totalled 73,576. In 2021 sales of Defenders and Discos totalled 64,353. A 12.54% decrease ~ the band plays whilst JLR senior management shuffle the deck chairs... |
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22nd Jul 2021 1:23pm |
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| Orchard Member Since: 07 May 2015 Location: Usually walking the dog Posts: 258 |
I suppose it must be, my mate said so 
Some sales cannibalisation of one model will always be factored in when a new model is planned, for example if the new model (A) is forecast to be 80,000 units, and an existing one (B) is forecast to drop from 50,000 to 40,000, you still have a net sales gain of 70,000, and all is good as long as (B) is still acceptably profitable. 2015 90 XS SW Bowler 1998 TD5 CSW |
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22nd Jul 2021 1:34pm |
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| Orchard Member Since: 07 May 2015 Location: Usually walking the dog Posts: 258 |
Not sure where you get your 2021 figures from, JLR's year to end of June shows: Defender 34,157 Discovery 9,859 (which I agree is awful) Total 44,000, so double it for the year, which is really not quite right but gives 88,000 or a 20% increase - band plays and ship re-floats, deckchairs put away for another year 
BTW I think 100,000 is referring to 'isn't it going well we might exceed our forecasts given the reception and positive feedback from dealers, media and customers ' that's obviously quite different now to a planning forecast 5 or 6 years ago, and great news if it does! 2015 90 XS SW Bowler
1998 TD5 CSW |
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22nd Jul 2021 1:47pm |
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| Supacat Member Since: 16 Oct 2012 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 11018
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2021 is financial year.
You can't take a year to date figure and double it.. I think that’s counting chickens. 100,000 refers to the original business case. If they thought there was only 50,000 sales the talk was of postponing or even cancelling the project. Nitra has a capacity of 150,000, paint shop 300,000 per annum. To suggest targets were much lower is nonsense. Defender is selling decent numbers, measured against other nameplates, but the metrics for success were that it was to perform at the level of another Evoque or Discovery Sport and the plain fact is, to date, it's not doing that. Click image to enlarge |
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22nd Jul 2021 1:53pm |
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| Orchard Member Since: 07 May 2015 Location: Usually walking the dog Posts: 258 |
If you take the first FY of sales of a new model, whilst its still ramping up globally, its no indication of business case success or otherwise.
100,000pa original business case we'll have to agree to differ on that one 
I was just trying to be positive about a new Land Rover model that is doing ok, even having launched in the middle of a pandemic. I know many on here don't want it to succeed for all sorts of reasons, but it's great for Land Rover, for R+D jobs and UK PLC. That's me done on this thread. Oh and yes, I do have a Carp. 90 D250 HSE on order  can't wait to see how it compares with the old Bowler 90 2015 90 XS SW Bowler
1998 TD5 CSW |
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22nd Jul 2021 2:46pm |
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