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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
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United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green
Tim in Scotland wrote:
Looks like some American dealerships are having to replace a lot of cars - 11 already in 4 months of the year at a single dealership........... these are all petrol engines versions. Does that also count as a boost to sales if you have to replace a “lemoned” car

Interesting question. I would suspect it would trigger an additional count in the "retail sales" column; in a similar fashion to dealer demos, and other dealer cars that seem to go straight to the used lot with very few miles.

Remember that JLR confirmed that out of the first 22,000 orders, 11,000 were for dealer demos. Some dealers must be on their third dealer demo cycle (assuming a 6 monthly turnover), so that's potentially 22,000 to 33,000 of current sales not going direct to retail customers. Global retail sales stood at 28,354 to end of Q3 FY21 (Dec 20).

That's without factoring in 90 model demos...

However you look at the figures, it's hard if not impossible to see anything to support "they are selling well"?
Post #897965 13th Apr 2021 11:52am
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LRSpain004



Member Since: 30 Jun 2020
Location: Elche
Posts: 68

Spain 
April 13, 2021


Re: Press Release - Jaguar Land Rover Reports Q4 Fiscal 2020/21 Retail Sales

JAGUAR LAND ROVER RETAIL SALES UP 12.4% IN Q4 FISCAL 2020/21,

CONTINUING RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 IMPACT

Whitley, UK, 13 April 2021 - Jaguar Land Rover achieved retail sales of 123,483 vehicles in Q4 Fiscal 2020/21, 12.4% higher than the same quarter last year.

China sales were up 127% compared to a year ago when that market was heavily impacted by Covid-19. Sales in North America were also up year-on-year (+10.4%), while other regions remain lower than pre-Covid levels, including Overseas markets (-10.0%), the UK (-6.8%) and Europe (-4.9%).

The award-winning new Land Rover Defender contributed significantly to the overall year- over-year growth, with 16,963 units sold in the quarter. Other Land Rover models with increased sales in the quarter include the Land Rover Discovery Sport (+28.6%), Range Rover Sport (+20.7%) and Range Rover (+15.8%). Jaguar models up in the quarter include XF (+28.4%), XE (+5.6%) and F-TYPE (+55.8%).

For the full 2020/21 fiscal year, Jaguar Land Rover global retail sales totaled 439,588 vehicles, down 13.6% on the previous year as a result of the impact of the pandemic. Growth in China was strong, with retails reaching 111,206 vehicles, up 23.4% year-on-year. Sales in other regions have not yet recovered to pre-Covid levels with North America down 14.3% and the UK, Europe, and Overseas markets each down more than 20%. By model, the new Land Rover Defender contributed 45,244 sales in the year, while other models were down year-on- year, reflecting the impact of Covid, particularly earlier in the year.

Jaguar Land Rover continued to roll out electrification technology across its model range. Twelve of the company's 13 nameplates are now available with an electrified option, with plug- in hybrids (PHEV) available in 8 models and mild hybrids (MHEV) in 11 models. As a result, the mix of electrified vehicles retailed in the fourth quarter grew to 62%, with 2% for the all- electric Jaguar I-PACE, 7% PHEV and 53% MHEV. For the full year, the retail mix of electrified vehicles was 51%, including 4% for the all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, 5% PHEV and 43% MHEV.

Felix Brautigam, Jaguar Land Rover Chief Commercial Officer, said:
Post #897989 13th Apr 2021 2:11pm
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J77



Member Since: 04 Nov 2019
Location: Fife
Posts: 3391

Scotland 
markb110 wrote:
J77 wrote:
11 cars replaced by one dealer Confused

Seems high even by LR standards


They should offer a buy one get one free deal so the owner can drive them every other day to see if they last longer..... Laughing


Could’ve done with that offer on my velar Rolling Eyes 24MY 90 D250 HSE, Tasman Blue
Post #898069 13th Apr 2021 7:49pm
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Tim in Scotland



Member Since: 23 May 2007
Location: The Land that time forgot
Posts: 3753

 
LRSpain004 wrote:
April 13, 2021

The award-winning new Land Rover Defender contributed significantly to the overall year- over-year growth, with 16,963 units sold in the quarter.......:


If that is so then L663 Defender is selling more cars in a single quarter almost than the old model sold per year in its last few years on sale? I stand to be corrected but I’m sure that I saw something that annual sales of the old one was around 18000-19000 a YEAR for the last 3-4 years it was on sale? Pangea Green D250 90 HSE with Air Suspension, Off-road Pack, Towing Pack, Black Contrast roof , rear recovery eyes, Front bash plate, Classic flaps all round, extended wheel arch kit and a few bits from PowerfulUK Expel Clear Gloss PPF to come
2020 D240 1st Edition in Pangea Green with Acorn interior. Now gone - old faithful, no mechanical issues whatsoever ever but the leaks and rattles all over the place won’t be missed!
Post #898084 13th Apr 2021 9:06pm
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umbertob



Member Since: 21 Jun 2020
Location: Altadena, CA
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United States 
That wouldn't surprise me. Don't forget that in the US/Canada the old Defender had not been sold since the mid-nineties, that's a big chunk of market that went away and the new one got back in spades. 2020 NAS Defender 110 HSE 5-seater / Silver / Khaki / Black Pack / Black Roof / Satin Film / Cold Pack / Off-Road Pack / Advanced OR Pack / Comfort + Convenience Pack / Sirius + HD radio / HUD / Meridian Surround
Post #898099 13th Apr 2021 11:05pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 11018

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green
Tim in Scotland wrote:
LRSpain004 wrote:
April 13, 2021

The award-winning new Land Rover Defender contributed significantly to the overall year- over-year growth, with 16,963 units sold in the quarter.......:


If that is so then L663 Defender is selling more cars in a single quarter almost than the old model sold per year in its last few years on sale? I stand to be corrected but I’m sure that I saw something that annual sales of the old one was around 18000-19000 a YEAR for the last 3-4 years it was on sale?

That's seems a particularly desperate metric to measure it against. A model not sold or promoted in a number of key markets now open, starved of investment, and built in an antiquated fashion in a large shed, most of which is now on a scrap heap.

All the additional effort and money that's been put in to the new Defender meant it needed to sell in the 80,000 to 100,000 range to make the money back and the margin required.

Doubling production (in 2016 22,504 old defenders were built) having increased costs more than 10 fold just means the hole you are in is that much bigger than before.

A pyrrhic success nevertheless but let's applaud it.

And then given the position of the new Defender with regard to the Discovery, compare this:

2016
Old Defender 22,504
Discovery 51,072
Total 73,576

2021
New Defender 45,244
Discovery 15,418 (albeit missing Q4) so add 5k to 6k more
Total 60,662 + 6k = 66,662

So JLR were selling 10% more of the old vehicles in 2016 without the financial drag of the new Nitra factory?

Business is not about selling more, if in doing so it costs you much, much more.
Post #898106 14th Apr 2021 5:34am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 11018

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green

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Last edited by Supacat on 15th Apr 2021 8:19am. Edited 1 time in total
Post #898367 15th Apr 2021 8:13am
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Cheshire110



Member Since: 26 Jul 2013
Location: Cheshire/London
Posts: 2751

United Kingdom 
So LR well on their way to 100,000 defenders per year then, when you think that it’s all still ramping up & new models (PHEV, V8, etc) still aren’t reaching customers.

Good for them.


“increased costs more than 10 fold” - source? I don’t believe that for a second. Cheers, David
Land Rovers of all shapes S3 onwards… Daily is a 110 V8.
Post #898371 15th Apr 2021 8:19am
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Tim in Scotland



Member Since: 23 May 2007
Location: The Land that time forgot
Posts: 3753

 
I assume that “budget” is LR speak for “what we think in our wildest dreams we might be able to build/ sell.” What is the difference between a wholesale car and a retail car? I’m reading it as retail is cars that dealers have received payment for or taken a deposit on and wholesale are cars ordered for dealer stock? Pangea Green D250 90 HSE with Air Suspension, Off-road Pack, Towing Pack, Black Contrast roof , rear recovery eyes, Front bash plate, Classic flaps all round, extended wheel arch kit and a few bits from PowerfulUK Expel Clear Gloss PPF to come
2020 D240 1st Edition in Pangea Green with Acorn interior. Now gone - old faithful, no mechanical issues whatsoever ever but the leaks and rattles all over the place won’t be missed!
Post #898378 15th Apr 2021 8:35am
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Cheshire110



Member Since: 26 Jul 2013
Location: Cheshire/London
Posts: 2751

United Kingdom 
I don’t believe that bottom graph either tbh… nothing moves in straight lines like that. Clearly interpolated from a smaller number of data points.

17,000 in Jan-Mar is getting on for 65-70,000 per year annualised, and most of Europe and the US was still in various degrees of lockdown, new models / variants still aren’t out and supply is clearly an issue - just look how many on here (myself included) have been waiting 6 or 9 months or more for their car. Seems worse across the pond too. Cheers, David
Land Rovers of all shapes S3 onwards… Daily is a 110 V8.
Post #898379 15th Apr 2021 8:47am
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Tim in Scotland



Member Since: 23 May 2007
Location: The Land that time forgot
Posts: 3753

 
I gave up waiting for the PHEV last June having had an “expression of interest” deposit on the PHEV version since January 2018 and bought a First Edition diesel instead. There’s no financial benefits to me to buy the more expensive PHEV versions, I’m a private buyer so no BIK and so far we don’t have any ULEZ’s up here that my D240 would get penalised for entering
TBH I don’t think that there will be a BEV version of Defender with a decent range even by 2030 unless batteries can be made much lighter and more powerful. I see Tesla is developing a “tabless” battery that is more powerful for the same capacity as current batteries but it’s because they can get more cells into the same space. I think when my 110’s warranty runs out I’ll be looking to replace it with something like a Zoe or the proposed baby Tesla hatchback if Elon ever makes.it, and I’ll still have the old 90 until the tax on diesel vehicles makes it too expensive to drive ....... Pangea Green D250 90 HSE with Air Suspension, Off-road Pack, Towing Pack, Black Contrast roof , rear recovery eyes, Front bash plate, Classic flaps all round, extended wheel arch kit and a few bits from PowerfulUK Expel Clear Gloss PPF to come
2020 D240 1st Edition in Pangea Green with Acorn interior. Now gone - old faithful, no mechanical issues whatsoever ever but the leaks and rattles all over the place won’t be missed!
Post #898398 15th Apr 2021 9:59am
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 11018

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green
Cheshire110 wrote:
I don’t believe that bottom graph either tbh

I'm sure that was the view of many senior managers at JLR when the final figures came in... sadly they are true.

If only they could talk about the 1.6 million online configurations again and tell us that it meant the new Defender was looking very popular Whistle

Cheshire110 wrote:
… nothing moves in straight lines like that. Clearly interpolated from a smaller number of data points.

Correct ~ as the X axis is time then unless you go in something like days (for which the data is not publically available) then it's always going to be so. A statement of the bleeding obvious does not make the figures wrong.

The actual quarterly data is presented in the two preceding graphs, so it's not as if the average person should be getting confused or think there's something untoward going on?

It argues to your point regarding supply issues; only rather than these being a 3rd party parts issue, I'd see it as JLR carefully managing supply against orders. I think they don't want to repeat the early supply mistakes that saw brand new models on the used car lot with delivery miles. A further indicator, if one was needed that demand has not been strong.

Increasing waiting times on new orders may give the perception to uninformed buyers that demand is strong, but really has more to do with helping shift existing stock ~ the difference between retail sales and wholesale, scheduling production to be as economic as possible and shoring up residuals, especially on stock held by dealers.

It may be more correct to show the graph as a series of discrete columns rather than a line graph; but line graphs are traditional for this sort of thing.

JLR used to publish data monthly, then moved to quarterly; however, in the case of the new Defender they have variously reported both and so some quarterly data has been averaged across the months to allow the actual monthly data to remain.


Last edited by Supacat on 16th Apr 2021 1:06pm. Edited 3 times in total
Post #898627 16th Apr 2021 12:38pm
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Supacat



Member Since: 16 Oct 2012
Location: West Yorkshire
Posts: 11018

United Kingdom 2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS DCPU Keswick Green
Cheshire110 wrote:
So LR well on their way to 100,000 defenders per year then


That's one way to spin 45,000 sales over 13 months... but it isn't really very convincing...

The thing about a run rate is that unless you hit it month in and month out, then it becomes a moving target, getting harder to hit as it climbs out of reach.

Cheshire110 wrote:
“increased costs more than 10 fold” - source? I don’t believe that for a second.


There's the factory at Nitra £1.5 billion, recruitment & training of the new labour force (and housing and transport) ; £500 million of vehicle development; unknown millions on the marketing.

What do you think was spent on the old model on a 10 year cycle?

10 fold might actually be conservative...
Post #898628 16th Apr 2021 12:47pm
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leeloo



Member Since: 31 Mar 2021
Location: Bereldange
Posts: 40

Luxembourg 
I think for now it is an issue of production, not demand. for most on the continental Europe takes 4-6 months easily to get them.
I guess they lose some orders as well because of this long delivery times.
Post #898638 16th Apr 2021 2:58pm
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LincsLR



Member Since: 08 Mar 2021
Location: Lincolnshire
Posts: 27

United Kingdom 
Supacat wrote:
Cheshire110 wrote:
So LR well on their way to 100,000 defenders per year then


That's one way to spin 45,000 sales over 13 months... but it isn't really very convincing...

The thing about a run rate is that unless you hit it month in and month out, then it becomes a moving target, getting harder to hit as it climbs out of reach.

Cheshire110 wrote:
“increased costs more than 10 fold” - source? I don’t believe that for a second.


There's the factory at Nitra £1.5 billion, recruitment & training of the new labour force (and housing and transport) ; £500 million of vehicle development; unknown millions on the marketing.

What do you think was spent on the old model on a 10 year cycle?

10 fold might actually be conservative...


Perhaps a little simplistic to look at costs in this very linear way; the car industry uses highly complex financial models to justify the decisions they make, and the initial sales numbers are just one part of that.

For example, focusing on the cost of Nitra is a distraction. The plant is a long term investment and assuming future versions don’t demand significant retooling, these early costs will support the production of models for years to come. The cost is likely to be amortised over an extended period of years and allow the rebalancing of capacity from other, potentially less productive plants in the long term.

Additionally, much of the development cost of the new model will be shared with tier one suppliers such as Johnson Controls, Magna and Delphi, along with dozens of others. The risk/reward structure of these supplier deals means models only become profitable for tier one suppliers after the first couple of years (at best) and more often the profit flows from the first mid-cycle update. It’s the same with most big manufacturing operations e.g. Boeing and Airbus, and while the bulk of cost will sit with the manufacturer, this highly complex supply strategy provides significant cost support. Others, in other industries, have copied these complex procurement models although some have got themselves into difficulty by trying to adapt them to their marketplace.

Finally and most importantly, car sales have been and continue to be massively impacted by COVID and a global parts shortage; so digging into these numbers at the moment and developing a detailed critique to support a negative opinion of output, to the level being attempted, does seem somewhat churlish.

Anecdotally, I ordered a Discovery Sport at the start of January and had it delivered early March. I ordered my Defender in early March and it’s scheduled for delivery in mid-July. If sufficient factory capacity is in place, and despite a model year change, this would suggest orders are strong to create that kind of wait, especially considering just how popular the Disco Sport is. And one last thought on attempts to think too deeply about whether an order is for a real customer, or just for a dealer, is to consider the structural differences of global car markets; many US cars are ordered by dealers as stock cars and are not individual orders because unlike other markets, a majority of cars in the US are bought by customers off a car lot, not a customer factory order. With a huge push into North America for the Defender, this will naturally impact the order mix.

To be fair to the model, we need a more ‘normal’ year to see the ‘real’ numbers.
Post #898642 16th Apr 2021 3:46pm
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