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Pickles

Member Since: 26 May 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3784

2013 Defender 90 Puma 2.2 CSW Keswick Green

Hello from Aussie.
Very sensible posts re this terrible outbreak from you guys.
However, I am very worried. How are we going to beat this thing? Infections increasing everywhere, increasing number of deaths,.....but no vaccine,...so what is going to happen?
I hear Boris says 12 weeks,...how does that work?....is there any foundation of fact in that statement?
I guess you guys will label me a "fatalist",..and fair enough, but it's just how I feel,...just can't see a good ending to this.
Pickles.

22nd Mar 2020 11:34pm

Eduardo

Member Since: 28 Aug 2008
Location: Región Metropolitana
Posts: 2110

2007 Defender 110 Puma 2.4 SW Stornoway Grey

Cheers from Chile

Its a terrible time for all the world. I´m follow the news in Europe and really looks like the virus is complete out of control everywhere there.

In Chile we have one death and 530 positive cases, but taking in account what happens in Italy and Spain we are fearing the worst in the next weeks.

Almost all people that can, are staying home (except some stupid people). Schools, restaurants, pubs, shopping malls and all public spaces are closed now whit a curfew during nigth. Some areas in complete querentine to avoid spread the virus.
Also all the persons that went on "vacation" to her's 2nd home has been ordered to come back to do not cope the health services in small towns.

Please stay at home. Is the only way to defeat this virus. Eduardo

MY 2007 110 SW PUMA 2.4: Big Fog of 64'
MY 1994 Jayco 1207 Folding camper: "El Tremendo"

Click image to enlarge

23rd Mar 2020 2:35am

AMBxx

Member Since: 24 Jul 2016
Location: York
Posts: 1031

2015 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS CSW Orkney Grey

Just heard this weekend that my nephew flew back from South America a week ago. Went to visit his girlfriend's grand mother this weeked.
What a moron. Why isn't this being taken more seriously?

23rd Mar 2020 6:33am

Joe the Plumber

Member Since: 18 Dec 2013
Location: Midlands
Posts: 907

2014 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 HT Fuji White

Apart from one plumbing job with a major leak I've got to do this morning, luckily in a house where no-one will be in, I cancelled all my forthcoming jobs yesterday. Most were for elderly customers, but none of the jobs were what you'd call essential, merely desirable.

I noted what one of the folks pointed out a few pages back that by travelling to and from our boat, we risk a breakdown or crash which will mean some other poor soul has to be involved with us, so we'll be at home for the foreseeable future. It was a very good point.

I'm trying to look on this as an opportunity to do all the decorating and home maintenance I've put off for the last few years, as well as some serious tidying of the roofspace, garage, my bookshelves, and various other bits and bobs.

And of course I hope that by the time it's over, my van will be as good as new (or as close to it as possible) again too. There's plenty of bits to polish.

23rd Mar 2020 6:36am

Doc P

Member Since: 03 Apr 2016
Location: Midlands
Posts: 565

2013 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 XS CSW Firenze Red

Pickles wrote:
Hello from Aussie.
Very sensible posts re this terrible outbreak from you guys.
However, I am very worried. How are we going to beat this thing? Infections increasing everywhere, increasing number of deaths,.....but no vaccine,...so what is going to happen?
I hear Boris says 12 weeks,...how does that work?....is there any foundation of fact in that statement?
I guess you guys will label me a "fatalist",..and fair enough, but it's just how I feel,...just can't see a good ending to this.
Pickles.

There’s no large-scale studies of it yet.

All Covid-19 virus particles (like all viruses) have 1 job - to make more viruses. This is what they’ll do until there’s no more hosts left (dead or developed immunity) or the virus mutates sufficiently significantly to become less infectious or less pathogenic. If 2/3 to 3/4 of the population acquire the infection over time, the longer that time is gives the health service scope to manage, the vaccine creators time to develop, test and produce a vaccine and the weather (here, anyway) to improve. All of that reduces death numbers but initially will only slow the rate of climb - that’s why the instruction to isolate.

What’s becoming clear, according to experts, is that it isn’t going away. We’re going to have to accept this organism will be around for the foreseeable future, causing pockets of illness and winter spikes - much like influenza has been in its various guises over generations. With some ‘herd immunity’ and, hopefully, a vaccine (which I guess will need continually changing to keep up with genetic change in the virus) we’ll be able to manage it but we’ll never eradicate it.

23rd Mar 2020 7:02am

Rashers

Member Since: 21 Jun 2015
Location: Norfolk
Posts: 3498

2014 Defender 110 Puma 2.2 USW Corris Grey

Thanks Doc P

23rd Mar 2020 7:14am

Doc P

Member Since: 03 Apr 2016
Location: Midlands
Posts: 565

I should state as a disclaimer that I am a senior medical doctor but I am not an infectious diseases consultant nor an expert on virology! I know perhaps a bit more than Joe Public, but for expert advice please look to information from NHS England or the Department of Health as, on occasion, I may be unwittingly talking out of my you know what!

23rd Mar 2020 7:27am

Chopperone

Member Since: 13 Nov 2016
Location: Derbyshire
Posts: 396

Now some of you have time on your hands try reading Deadliest Enemy by Michael T Osterholm
Makes some fascinating AND essential reading as to the way forward.
Guy May your life be like toilet paper ; long & useful.

23rd Mar 2020 7:52am

Pickles

Member Since: 26 May 2013
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 3784

Doc P wrote:
Pickles wrote:
Hello from Aussie.
Very sensible posts re this terrible outbreak from you guys.
However, I am very worried. How are we going to beat this thing? Infections increasing everywhere, increasing number of deaths,.....but no vaccine,...so what is going to happen?
I hear Boris says 12 weeks,...how does that work?....is there any foundation of fact in that statement?
I guess you guys will label me a "fatalist",..and fair enough, but it's just how I feel,...just can't see a good ending to this.
Pickles.

There’s no large-scale studies of it yet.

All Covid-19 virus particles (like all viruses) have 1 job - to make more viruses. This is what they’ll do until there’s no more hosts left (dead or developed immunity) or the virus mutates sufficiently significantly to become less infectious or less pathogenic. If 2/3 to 3/4 of the population acquire the infection over time, the longer that time is gives the health service scope to manage, the vaccine creators time to develop, test and produce a vaccine and the weather (here, anyway) to improve. All of that reduces death numbers but initially will only slow the rate of climb - that’s why the instruction to isolate.

What’s becoming clear, according to experts, is that it isn’t going away. We’re going to have to accept this organism will be around for the foreseeable future, causing pockets of illness and winter spikes - much like influenza has been in its various guises over generations. With some ‘herd immunity’ and, hopefully, a vaccine (which I guess will need continually changing to keep up with genetic change in the virus) we’ll be able to manage it but we’ll never eradicate it.

"Pockets of illness", I DEFINITELY don't think so, it's MASSIVELY more widespread.
Pickles.

23rd Mar 2020 9:32am

gilarion

Member Since: 05 Dec 2013
Location: Wales
Posts: 5110

2007 Defender 90 Other CSW Trident Green

Took advantage of the pensioners hour 8-9 am at Sainburys this morning, have to say there were only about twenty people in the store which on the whole was well-stocked.
I did notice a few arguments going on at the doors with none pensioners trying to enter but the security guards were having none of it. For those who like Welsh Mountains and narrow boats have a look at my videos and photos at..

http://www.youtube.com/user/conwy1

23rd Mar 2020 10:16am

Pilgrimmick

Member Since: 16 Nov 2015
Location: Highlands
Posts: 582

Doc P wrote:
I should state as a disclaimer that I am a senior medical doctor but I am not an infectious diseases consultant nor an expert on virology! I know perhaps a bit more than Joe Public, but for expert advice please look to information from NHS England or the Department of Health as, on occasion, I may be unwittingly talking out of my you know what!

Thanks for your honesty, we should instead listed to Karen on Facebook, she knows everything!😂 80" 1948
Lightweight V8
Bowler Tomcat
130 Station wagon
90 300tdi
(Santana PS10 pick up)
Range Rover L322 (Ful fat)

23rd Mar 2020 10:22am

ssg

Member Since: 01 Mar 2018
Location: North East
Posts: 65

Look at the stats all.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/...ographics/
This virus is kiling older people with pre existing serious medical conditions, yes many other become ill but the vast majority, all but 0.2% recover. older men with preexisting conditions are more likley to die that women.
A recent study from Italy of 350 dead showed average age 79, all but 0.8% had underlying conditions specifically heart disease, diabetes and respiratory disease.
If a fraction of the money this is costing the world had been put into completely protecting the vulnerable the world would be in a much better place.
I am tracking this virus using mutiple sources as part of my job.
The worldometers site is by far the most accurate and upto date resource.
If you know anyone who falls into the vulnerable catagory make sure they are totaly protected. the rest of us will either have no or mild symptoms (80%), a few may experience more severe symtoms and a small proportion will require hospitisation with repiratory distress but the vast majority will recover.

23rd Mar 2020 10:30am

Doc P

Member Since: 03 Apr 2016
Location: Midlands
Posts: 565

Pickles wrote:
Doc P wrote:
Pickles wrote:
Hello from Aussie.
Very sensible posts re this terrible outbreak from you guys.
However, I am very worried. How are we going to beat this thing? Infections increasing everywhere, increasing number of deaths,.....but no vaccine,...so what is going to happen?
I hear Boris says 12 weeks,...how does that work?....is there any foundation of fact in that statement?
I guess you guys will label me a "fatalist",..and fair enough, but it's just how I feel,...just can't see a good ending to this.
Pickles.

There’s no large-scale studies of it yet.

All Covid-19 virus particles (like all viruses) have 1 job - to make more viruses. This is what they’ll do until there’s no more hosts left (dead or developed immunity) or the virus mutates sufficiently significantly to become less infectious or less pathogenic. If 2/3 to 3/4 of the population acquire the infection over time, the longer that time is gives the health service scope to manage, the vaccine creators time to develop, test and produce a vaccine and the weather (here, anyway) to improve. All of that reduces death numbers but initially will only slow the rate of climb - that’s why the instruction to isolate.

What’s becoming clear, according to experts, is that it isn’t going away. We’re going to have to accept this organism will be around for the foreseeable future, causing pockets of illness and winter spikes - much like influenza has been in its various guises over generations. With some ‘herd immunity’ and, hopefully, a vaccine (which I guess will need continually changing to keep up with genetic change in the virus) we’ll be able to manage it but we’ll never eradicate it.

"Pockets of illness", I DEFINITELY don't think so, it's MASSIVELY more widespread.
Pickles.

No - I'm talking about any future events, not now - which is of course a pandemic.

23rd Mar 2020 10:38am

Tim in Scotland

Member Since: 23 May 2007
Location: The Land that time forgot
Posts: 3753

SSG - what is your answer to the news this morning that increasing numbers of fit 30-40 year olds in Inner London are dying from infection as reported by the BBC Today program. I assume these are the people who wouldn’t heed the rules not to go to use pubs, clubs and bars - the generation that pound the Embankment in tight Lycra every lunchtime......... Pangea Green D250 90 HSE with Air Suspension, Off-road Pack, Towing Pack, Black Contrast roof , rear recovery eyes, Front bash plate, Classic flaps all round, extended wheel arch kit and a few bits from PowerfulUK Expel Clear Gloss PPF to come
2020 D240 1st Edition in Pangea Green with Acorn interior. Now gone - old faithful, no mechanical issues whatsoever ever but the leaks and rattles all over the place won’t be missed!

23rd Mar 2020 11:09am

ssg

Member Since: 01 Mar 2018
Location: North East
Posts: 65

Believe the stats from countries who have been through this or are ahead of us in dealing with it. Yes people in their 30/40s will become ill with this, some will require hospitalisation, some unfortunatley will die (most will have pre existing medical condirions).

DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old 21.9%

70-79 years old 14.8%

60-69 years old 8.0%

50-59 years old 3.6%

40-49 years old 1.3%

30-39 years old 0.4%

20-29 years old 0.2%

10-19 years old 0.2%

0-9 years old no fatalities

Source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/...ographics/

Yes unfortunatly a small proportion of younger people will die but the vast majority are old and infirm.

Dont get me wrong this is a terrible virus but lets put the effort where it can have the greatest impact.

23rd Mar 2020 12:01pm

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