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Interlet

Member Since: 10 Oct 2011
Location: Norwich
Posts: 461

1998 Defender 110 300 Tdi HT Alpine White

OK, perhaps I misunderstood the earlier sentiments. It seemed to me like people wanted to wash all responsibility of it away, outright, but maybe you just meant that this should not become a physical conflict between East and West. I agree, the Cold War never became a direct military conflict, and neither should this, but wars by proxies are ways of keeping pressure up, without being directly involved.

Any force should be a last last resort, and there will be no situation where I would say we should send UK troops in to directly fight Pro-Russian rebels. But nonetheless, we do have a problem. The UN is utterly powerless to do anything because Russia is a key member, and China is likely to share Russia's stances if any "vote" or "resolution" were to be offered.

NATO now yields far more influence, and for the first time since the Cold War, is where the true defense of sovereignty needs to be defended. But we still have another problem. The economic links of mainland Western Europe to Russia, mostly through energy. This is a problem that even in the 90s, Germany should have seen coming. Unlike Britain, who only relies on 1%, Germany and a lot of Europe are at the mercy of Russian pipelines, and that was ultimately a mistake which has cost, not necessarily German lives, but has almost certainly cost Ukrainian lives, because had Europe not decided to be so reliant on Russia for energy after the end of the Cold War, Putin's position of power would have been much reduced, and he could not be so sure that Western Europe would not punish him more heavily for breaking international law.

The problem is, and will continue to be a very broad and obvious division between how far the distant USA will go, and how far Merkel and the rest of the pipeline dependent European countries will go. And division is not going to rapidly bring about an end to the trouble stirring war provoking tactics of Putin. Making him in the meantime, even more powerful and dangerous.

No one is mentioning it, but what is wrong with NATO peacekeepers? Not to push Russia back through force, but to say enough is enough, too many people are dying or being injured and too many local and international laws are being broken, we are going to send troops in to merely stop both sides from attacking each other.

That is a suggestion...I have not yet decided myself it that would be wise. 1998 110 300Tdi White Hard Top

1st May 2014 6:46pm

What puddle?

Member Since: 25 Oct 2013
Location: Reading
Posts: 952

Any action of any kind depends on what Russia's strategic interest actually is. No one seems to understand what Putin is doing, what his long term aims are. It would appear that he hasn't thought it through, and simply wants to halt creeping Westernisation - and remind his own population that uprisings would be crushed. To my mind, he would have done better to covertly destabilise Ukraine. He could have insisted they pay Gazprom all it's due invoices, caused annoyance at border controls with imports & exports, even organised annoyance-resistance in Eastern parts of the Ukraine. But no, he comes over all bully-boyish, and doesn't look like the same bloke who out manoeuvred Obama a few months back.

Putin would never accept NATO peacekeepers, I'm afraid. All things are still reasonable at this stage, the Americans still use Russian airspace and land routes to take stuff in and out of Afghanistan. If that agreement ends then it will be a sign that things have taken a different turning point. Now left.

1st May 2014 7:19pm

Interlet

Member Since: 10 Oct 2011
Location: Norwich
Posts: 461

Given the Americans will be out of Afghanistan in the near future, that is not much of a worry. You are probably right, a peacekeeping excuse just will not cut it, and besides, no one will be interested in that idea anyway. I think most commentators do not believe he has a long term strategy - just playing it by feel, and playing it he sure is. He might not have been as subtle about it as Syria, but he is still doing a good job of making the West look useless and disorganised, and I think that is the greatest pleasure he gets - sticking two fingers up at the West and keeping the balance of world power just a little bit more to the East than it would otherwise be. He may have said in the past that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a tragedy for Russia, but he is not going to try and rebuild sections of it when the conditions for regaining influence are not in his favour. Does not mean it will always go his way though.

The sanctions have already hit Russia pretty hard, which is the good news. Their currency rating is just above Junk status by some credit agencies, and £65 billion of investors finances have left the country this year because of a lack of confidence. The economy there is battling heavily with inflation at over 7% and is failing to stop it. Putin eventually will be in a situation where he cannot afford to carry on aggravating its neighbours and breaking international law.

The next move is probably on him actually, and it could get very interesting, if not dangerous... 1998 110 300Tdi White Hard Top

1st May 2014 9:01pm

ericvv

Member Since: 02 Jun 2011
Location: Near the Jet d'Eau
Posts: 5816

2009 Defender 110 Puma 2.4 SVX Station Wagon Santorini Black

Been there this week. Took this sneaky picture from the car somewhere on the road. Road blocks not a pretty sight. And it ain't over yet.

Click image to enlarge You never actually own a Defender. You merely look after it for the next generation.
http://youtu.be/yVRlSsJwD0o
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GtzTT9Pdl0
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dxwjPuHIV7I
https://vimeo.com/201482507
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21st Jun 2014 4:40am

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